Forex Trend: How to Predict The Forex Market

Trading with the trend on the exchange, Trend following

What does a trend following trade look like?

The security that is traded among investors is a currency pair that fluctuates based on market sentiment.

What markets will you choose? While some people might focus on limited, market-specific portfolios, such as currencies or bonds, others pursue a more widely diversified portfolio of markets.

For example, the AHL Diversified Program the largest trend following fund in the world, now run by Man Group PLC and founded by here trades a diversified portfolio of over core markets on 36 exchanges.

Definition[ edit ] Trend following is an investment or trading strategy which tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets.

They trade stock indices, bonds, currencies, short-term interest rates, and commodities. No trend following trader keeps fundamental experts on staff.

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They do not have an in-depth understanding of the companies that comprise whatever stock index. To trade the trend.

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When you look at trend traders performance losses are offset by winners. No one ever knows which market will be the big trend that pays for the losses—hence the need for diversification.

Trends are a manifestation of serial correlation in financial markets—the phenomenon whereby past price movements inform about future price behavior. Serial correlation can be explained by factors as obvious as crowd behavior, as well as more subtle factors, such as varying levels of information among different market participants.

Defining a Trend

Although they vary in their intensity, duration, and frequency, price trends are universally recurrent across all sectors and markets. Trends are an attractive focus for active trading styles applied across a diverse range of global markets.

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We will eventually start broadening out and realizing that trend following is a great way to trade. What other way can you trade and get a handle on risk?

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Yet by factoring in every possible fundamental piece of data, which is impossible, you still would not know how much and when to buy, or how much and when to sell. The truth of price always wins if the debate trading with the trend on the exchange grounded in reason. Price is the only fact.


That said, even if you digest price as the key trading variable, it is not unusual for traders to focus on only one market—usually individual stocks in their home country to the exclusion of all other global opportunities. They never dream of branching out into trading currencies or futures or coffee or gold. The idea you could know enough about Tesla and soybeans to trade them the same might be unfathomable, but think about what cotton, crude oil, Cisco, GE, the U. Market prices, traded prices, are the unequivocal objective data reflecting the sum total of all views.

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You could absolutely look at individual price histories or charts, without knowing which market is which, and trade them successfully. That is not what they teach at Harvard or Wharton, but it is the foundation of making millions as a trend following trader.

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You will never know how high or how low any market might go. A market is going to go where a market is going to go.