Standard deviation of the option price
December 20, No matter what type of security or financial instrument one might be trading, the expected price range of the underlying is typically a critical factor in determining how to capitalize upon a given opportunity.
While many option traders understand and use implied volatility in their decision-making process, fewer of them delve into standard deviation. Implied volatility itself is defined as a one standard deviation annual move.
On top of that, a one standard deviation move encompasses the range a stock should trade in That information on its own is pretty powerful.
That means XYZ has an implied These probabilities are derived from a statistical function known as a probability distribution.
For example, when implied volatility increases, the range of prices encompassed by a one standard deviation move also gets wider.
How do we choose our trading strategy?
This is illustrated in the standard deviation of the option price below: Periods of low implied volatility therefore imply tight ranges for an underlying, while rising implied volatility provides wider ranges in which an underlying could theoretically trade.
In practice one can also see how changes in implied volatility and standard deviation might also create a more attractive potential opportunity for an options trader.
Consequently, in high volatility environments, when expectations for movement are expanding, short volatility traders have a choice available to them: Sell strikes that are closer to at-the-money ATMwith higher credits received, but with lower probability of profit POP Sell strikes that are further from at-the-money ATMwith slightly lower credits received, but with higher probability of profit POP To review the risk-reward ramifications of these two choices, traders may want to review a previous installment of Market Measures on the tastytrade financial network.
The information presented on this episode stems from internal tastytrade research which leverages historical market data and helps illustrate the relative advantages and disadvantages of the two trading approaches. A comprehensive review of this material should better equip traders to evaluate such decisions going forward.
Sage Anderson is a pseudonym. The contributor has an extensive background in trading equity derivatives and managing volatility-based portfolios as a former prop trading firm employee.
The contributor is not an employee of luckbox, tastytrade or any affiliated companies. Readers can direct questions about any of the topics covered in this blog post, or any other trading-related subject, to support luckboxmagazine.